November 10th 2002
The 2002 season had been pretty quiet as far as severe weather was concerned, with the number of reported tornado touchdowns about 60% of normal. On the morning of 10th November however, it seemed very clear that something big was going to happen. Mid and upper level temperatures were very cold after a week of chilly weather, and a surface low centered on the Great Lakes was advecting warm moisture-rich air northward into the Ohio valley. Instability was enhanced by 2 shortwaves passing over the region during the day, and the warm moist airmass at the surface, which had already produced record temperatures of 74F in Cincinnati, was being lifted by a very strong cold front approaching from the West.
Surface chart for the afternoon of 10th Nov. The surface low is just north of the Great Lakes now, and the trailing cold front is digging into the unstable airmass over the Ohio valley.
Warm air from the Gulf brought temperatures 20 degrees higher than the average for this time of year.
And with the warm air came an abundance of low-level moisture.
This Weather Channel Thunderstorm forecast shows the areas most likely to experience severe thunderstorms in red. The Storm Prediction Center labelled most of this area a "HIGH RISK", a classification which is rare for this area, especially at this time of the season.T
And so the scene was set for some pretty violent weather - the next page details exactly what happened, and includes some video and pictures of what we saw here in N KY.